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Mortgage Lock-In Gap Calculator — What Moving Actually Costs

See the payment increase moving would cost against your locked-in rate, and how much that gap is estimated to reduce your odds of selling this year, using a peer-reviewed FHFA study.

Quick answer: See what moving would actually cost against your locked-in rate, and how much that gap is estimated to reduce your odds of selling this year, using a peer-reviewed FHFA elasticity. Enter current rate, current balance, current payment, and market rate to personalize the estimate. It returns rate gap, reduced odds of selling, and payment increase so you can compare the impact before choosing a next step. Use it to compare payment, equity, rate, and timing tradeoffs before applying or changing a loan.

SWReviewed by SwitchWize Research Desk · Last reviewed September 1, 2026
Your Rate Gap
2.78%Today's average rate minus your current rate
Your Rate Gap
2.78%Today's average rate minus your current rate
Estimated Reduction in Your Odds of Selling This Year
50.32%Based on a peer-reviewed FHFA study of the 2022-2024 lock-in effect, not a prediction about your specific home
Estimated Payment on the New Home
$2,22430-year fixed, principal and interest only
Monthly Payment Increase If You Move
$877New payment minus your current payment. Negative means the new payment would actually be lower.
Annual Payment Increase
$10,519
5-Year Cost of the Payment Increase
$52,597Before accounting for any price appreciation, selling costs, or closing costs
Annual Value of Your Locked Rate
$8,340What refinancing your current balance at today's rate alone would cost you each year, separate from any decision to move
Diagnostic

Your rate gap is 2.78 points, estimated to cut your odds of selling this year by about 50.32%.

Moving to a $450,000 home at today's rate would cost about $877/mo more than your current payment.

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My mortgage rate gap is 2.78 points -- moving would cost about $877/mo more.

What to do next

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Your action plan
  1. 1

    Review the risk level and primary pressure point

    See what moving would actually cost against your locked-in rate, and how much that gap is estimated to reduce your odds of selling this year, using a peer-reviewed FHFA elasticity.

  2. 2

    Compare the result against current market-rate options

    Assumptions change the answer, especially when rates, taxes, or timing matter.

  3. 3

    Use the linked guide or product page for the next step

    Turn the result into a prioritized action instead of treating it as a one-off number.

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This is an educational estimate, not tax, legal, investment, or lending advice. Tax rules, rates, and eligibility change and depend on your full situation. Confirm with a qualified professional or the provider before acting.

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About mortgage rates

Mortgage rates depend on loan type (30-yr fixed, 15-yr fixed, ARM, FHA, VA, jumbo), your credit score, down payment, points paid, loan amount, property state, and whether you're purchasing or refinancing. The calculator above uses a representative market rate for payment estimates — your actual rate will vary.

For a personalized rate comparison, use the tool below to see lenders ranked by APR, loan type, and your profile.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Everything you need to know.

What is the mortgage lock-in effect?
It is the tendency of homeowners with a mortgage rate well below the current market rate to stay put rather than sell, since selling means giving up that low rate on a new, more expensive loan. A 2024 FHFA working paper estimated it prevented about 1.72 million home sales between 2022 and 2024 and raised national home prices by about 7%.
Is the reduced odds of selling figure specific to my home?
No. It applies a fixed, published elasticity (about 18 percentage points per 1-point rate gap) from the FHFA study to your entered gap. It is a population-level estimate applied to your numbers, not a prediction about your specific home or situation.
Does this calculator include closing costs or price appreciation?
No. It compares principal-and-interest payments only, on a 30-year fixed loan for the new home. Real estate commissions, closing costs, moving costs, and any appreciation on your current home are not included -- add those separately for a complete picture.
Is the Mortgage Lock-In Gap Calculator — What Moving Actually Costs free to use?
Yes. SwitchWize calculators are free, and you do not need an account to run scenarios or view the result.
Does using the Mortgage Lock-In Gap Calculator — What Moving Actually Costs affect my credit score?
No. Using a calculator does not trigger a credit check. A credit impact can occur only if you apply directly with a lender, card issuer, or provider.
Are the results personalized financial advice?
No. Calculator outputs are educational estimates based on the inputs you enter. Review assumptions and confirm terms directly with providers before making a financial decision.
What should I do after seeing the result?
Use the recommendation module on this page to compare mortgage rates, or run Money Map to compare this home & mortgage decision with your other opportunities.
How does SwitchWize choose related offers?
Related offers are matched by the calculator surface (mortgage) and ranked using SwitchWize data such as rate, fees, trust signals, product fit, and switching friction. Paid relationships do not change organic ranking order.
How fresh are the rates and offers shown?
Rate and offer data is reviewed on a recurring cadence and every offer module shows review context or links to the methodology and disclosure pages.
Where can I see the ranking methodology?
The SwitchWize methodology page explains how rate freshness, editorial review, affiliate disclosure, and category ranking factors work.
Can Money Map use this result?
Yes. Money Map is the broader diagnostic path: it compares savings, mortgage, cards, and debt so you can see whether this calculator result is your highest-impact next move.

Why This Matters

Millions of homeowners locked in a mortgage rate well below the current market rate, and a 2024 FHFA study found each percentage point of that gap cuts the odds of selling in a given year by about 18 percentage points. This calculator turns that research into a personal number: the actual payment increase moving would cost you, next to the estimated effect on your own odds of selling.

How to Use It

  1. 1Enter your current mortgage rate, balance, and actual monthly payment
  2. 2Enter today's average rate and the price of a home you would consider buying
  3. 3See your rate gap and the estimated reduction in your odds of selling this year
  4. 4Compare the monthly and 5-year cost of the payment increase against the annual value of staying put
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