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Sequence Risk Calculator

See how the order of market returns impacts your retirement portfolio when you're making fixed withdrawals.

Quick answer: Compare two simplified retirement return-order scenarios with identical period averages and fixed withdrawals. Enter Starting Portfolio, Annual Withdrawal, Poor-Return Period Average, and Strong-Return Period Average to personalize the estimate. It returns Impact of Return Order, Ending Balance (Bad Years First), and Ending Balance (Good Years First) so you can compare the impact before choosing a next step. Use it to compare long-term value, tax impact, risk, time horizon, and contribution choices.

SWReviewed by SwitchWize Research Desk · Last reviewed July 14, 2026
Impact of Return Order
$796,871
Impact of Return Order
$796,871
Ending Balance (Bad Years First)
$500,000
Ending Balance (Good Years First)
$1,296,871
Diagnostic

With bad years first, this portfolio ends at about $500,000. With good years first, it ends at about $1,296,871, same average return, same withdrawals.

The modeled ending-balance difference is $796,871 under these fixed two-period assumptions.

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What to do next

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Your action plan
  1. 1

    Review the risk level and primary pressure point

    Compare two simplified retirement return-order scenarios with identical period averages and fixed withdrawals.

  2. 2

    Check the assumptions before using the result for a high-stakes decision

    Assumptions change the answer, especially when rates, taxes, or timing matter.

  3. 3

    Save the result to Money Map or use the linked next action

    Turn the result into a prioritized action instead of treating it as a one-off number.

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This is an educational estimate, not tax, legal, investment, or lending advice. Tax rules, rates, and eligibility change and depend on your full situation. Confirm with a qualified professional or the provider before acting.

Calculator action path

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Frequently Asked Questions

Everything you need to know.

What does an example Sequence Risk Calculator calculation look like?
Using this calculator's own default assumptions, a starting portfolio of $1,000,000, annual withdrawal of $50,000 and poor-return period average of -10% produces an estimated impact of return order of $796,871 and ending balance (bad years first) of $500,000. Enter your own numbers above to see how it changes for your situation.
Why does it matter which years are good or bad if the average is the same?
Because withdrawals reduce your balance, poor returns early in retirement have a compounding effect: you're taking money out of a shrinking pot, leaving less to grow back during strong years. If strong returns come first, your withdrawals represent a smaller percentage of a larger balance, allowing more capital to remain invested and benefit from recovery.
How can I reduce the impact of return sequence?
A longer withdrawal period allows more time for the portfolio to recover from early losses. Withdrawing less annually keeps a larger balance to weather poor-return years. Starting with a larger portfolio relative to your withdrawal needs also provides more cushion. This calculator helps you test these trade-offs by adjusting the inputs.
Is the Sequence Risk Calculator free to use?
Yes. SwitchWize calculators are free, and you do not need an account to run scenarios or view the result.
Does using the Sequence Risk Calculator affect my credit score?
No. Using a calculator does not trigger a credit check. A credit impact can occur only if you apply directly with a lender, card issuer, or provider.
Are the results personalized financial advice?
No. Calculator outputs are educational estimates based on the inputs you enter. Review assumptions and confirm terms directly with providers before making a financial decision.
What should I do after seeing the result?
Use the recommendation module on this page to compare brokerage accounts, or run Money Map to compare this investing & retirement decision with your other opportunities.
How does SwitchWize choose related offers?
Related offers are matched by the calculator surface (brokerage) and ranked using SwitchWize data such as rate, fees, trust signals, product fit, and switching friction. Paid relationships do not change organic ranking order.
How fresh are the rates and offers shown?
Rate and offer data is reviewed on a recurring cadence and every offer module shows review context or links to the methodology and disclosure pages.
Where can I see the ranking methodology?
The SwitchWize methodology page explains how rate freshness, editorial review, affiliate disclosure, and category ranking factors work.
Can Money Map use this result?
Yes. Money Map is the broader diagnostic path: it compares savings, mortgage, cards, and debt so you can see whether this calculator result is your highest-impact next move.

Why This Matters

When you withdraw money from a portfolio, the sequence of returns matters as much as the average return itself. Withdrawing during poor market years depletes your balance faster, leaving less to recover during strong years. This calculator isolates that effect by comparing two identical-average scenarios (one starting with losses, one with gains) to show how return order alone changes your outcome.

How to Use It

  1. 1Enter your starting portfolio balance.
  2. 2Enter the amount you plan to withdraw annually.
  3. 3Enter the average annual return during poor-market years.
  4. 4Enter the average annual return during strong-market years.
  5. 5Enter how many years each period lasts.
  6. 6Review your ending balance if poor years come first, your ending balance if strong years come first, and the difference between them to understand the impact of return sequence.
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