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Fed Rate Decision Tracker

Every FOMC decision, and what it means for your savings, mortgage, and credit card rates. Updated within hours of each announcement.

Current Fed Funds Rate

3.63%

3.50–3.75% target range

↓ 175bps from July 2023 peak

Best savings APY

4.20% APY

Down from ~5.3% at peak

Best 12-mo CD

4.25% APY

Lock in before more cuts

30-yr Mortgage

6.72%

Treasury-driven

Dot Plot 2026

3.50%

Median Fed projection

Next FOMC Meeting: Jun 17-18

Market pricing ~65% chance of cut

Get rate change alert

2026 FOMC Meeting Schedule & Decisions

Jan 28-29Hold3.50-3.75%

Hold — inflation still above target

Mar 18-19Hold3.50-3.75%

PCE at 2.7% — no cut yet, dot plot unchanged at 2 cuts for 2026

May 6-7Hold3.50-3.75%

PCE at 2.6% — no cut yet, dot plot still projecting 2 cuts in 2026

Jun 17-18Upcoming3.50-3.75%

Market pricing ~65% chance of cut

Jul 29-30Upcoming3.50-3.75%

Sep 16-17Upcoming3.50-3.75%

Oct 28-29Upcoming3.50-3.75%

Dec 9-10Upcoming3.50-3.75%

How Fed Decisions Move Your Rates

Different products respond differently to Fed rate changes. Here's what a 25bps cut, hold, or hike means for each.

🏦

High-Yield Savings (HYSA)

4.40% APY

If Fed cuts 25bps

~4.20% APY

If Fed holds

Stable

If Fed hikes 25bps

~4.60% APY

Sensitivity: High — moves within 30 days of Fed action

💰

Money Market Accounts

4.30% APY

If Fed cuts 25bps

~4.10% APY

If Fed holds

Stable

If Fed hikes 25bps

~4.60% APY

Sensitivity: High — prime rate-linked

🔒

CD Rates (12-month)

4.15% APY

If Fed cuts 25bps

Locked if already purchased; new CDs drop

If Fed holds

Stable — lock in now

If Fed hikes 25bps

New CDs increase

Sensitivity: Medium — forward-looking, priced on yield curve

🏠

30-Year Mortgage

6.72% APR

If Fed cuts 25bps

May drop 10-20bps (not 1:1 with Fed)

If Fed holds

Driven by 10-yr Treasury, not Fed Funds

If Fed hikes 25bps

Would rise further

Sensitivity: Low direct correlation — follows 10-yr Treasury

💳

Credit Card APR

~21.5% APR (average)

If Fed cuts 25bps

~21.25% APR

If Fed holds

Unchanged

If Fed hikes 25bps

~21.75% APR

Sensitivity: High — directly prime rate-linked (prime + margin)

🏡

HELOC Rate

~8.75% APR (average)

If Fed cuts 25bps

~8.50% APR

If Fed holds

Unchanged

If Fed hikes 25bps

~9.00% APR

Sensitivity: High — variable, prime rate-linked

What each Fed cut costs your savings account

High-yield savings rates move within ~30 days of a Fed cut. A 25bps reduction at today's best rate (4.20% APY) reduces annual interest by:

$10k balance

−$25/yr

per 25bps cut

$25k balance

−$63/yr

per 25bps cut

$50k balance

−$125/yr

per 25bps cut

$100k balance

−$250/yr

per 25bps cut

Lock in a CD now to protect your yield if you expect more cuts — compare CD rates. Full historical data: Fed Funds rate chart.

The Full Rate Cycle — 2022 to Today

The Fed raised rates 525bps in 16 months (2022-2023) — the fastest hiking cycle in 40 years. The cutting cycle began in September 2024.

Period	Action	Rate	Change
March 2026	Hold	3.50-3.75%	Hold
January 2026	Hold	3.50-3.75%	Hold
December 2025	Rate cut -25bps	3.50-3.75%	-25bps
November 2025	Rate cut -25bps	3.75-4.00%	-25bps
September 2025	Rate cut -25bps	4.00-4.25%	-25bps
January 2025	Hold	4.25-4.50%	Hold
December 2024	Rate cut -25bps	4.25-4.50%	-25bps
November 2024	Rate cut -25bps	4.50-4.75%	-25bps
September 2024	First cut -50bps	4.75-5.00%	-50bps
July 2023	Rate hike +25bps — peak	5.25-5.50%	+25bps
February 2023	Rate hike +25bps	4.50-4.75%	+25bps
November 2022	Rate hike +75bps	3.75-4.00%	+75bps
July 2022	Rate hike +75bps	2.25-2.50%	+75bps
June 2022	Rate hike +75bps	1.50-1.75%	+75bps
May 2022	Rate hike +50bps	0.75-1.00%	+50bps
March 2022	Hiking cycle begins	0.25-0.50%	+25bps