Fed Rate Decision Tracker
Every FOMC decision, and what it means for your savings, mortgage, and credit card rates. Updated within hours of each announcement.
Current Fed Funds Rate
3.63%
3.50–3.75% target range
↓ 175bps from July 2023 peak
Best HYSA
4.85% APY
Down from ~5.3% at peak
Best 12-mo CD
4.50% APY
Lock in before more cuts
30-yr Mortgage
6.37%
Treasury-driven
Dot Plot 2026
3.50%
Median Fed projection
Next FOMC Meeting: May 6-7
Market pricing 35% probability of 25bps cut
2026 FOMC Meeting Schedule & Decisions
January 28-29Hold3.50-3.75%
Fed holds, cites sticky inflation above 2% target
March 18-19Hold3.50-3.75%
PCE at 2.7% — no cut yet, dot plot unchanged at 2 cuts for 2026
May 6-7Upcoming3.50-3.75%
Market pricing 35% probability of 25bps cut
June 17-18Upcoming
Summer cut window — market watching labor data
July 28-29Upcoming
September 15-16Upcoming
October 27-28Upcoming
December 9-10Upcoming
How Fed Decisions Move Your Rates
Different products respond differently to Fed rate changes. Here's what a 25bps cut, hold, or hike means for each.
🏦
High-Yield Savings (HYSA)
4.85% APYIf Fed cuts 25bps
~4.65% APY
If Fed holds
Stable
If Fed hikes 25bps
~5.05% APY
Sensitivity: High — moves within 30 days of Fed action
💰
Money Market Accounts
4.75% APYIf Fed cuts 25bps
~4.55% APY
If Fed holds
Stable
If Fed hikes 25bps
~5.05% APY
Sensitivity: High — prime rate-linked
🔒
CD Rates (12-month)
4.50% APYIf Fed cuts 25bps
Locked if already purchased; new CDs drop
If Fed holds
Stable — lock in now
If Fed hikes 25bps
New CDs increase
Sensitivity: Medium — forward-looking, priced on yield curve
🏠
30-Year Mortgage
6.37% APRIf Fed cuts 25bps
May drop 10-20bps (not 1:1 with Fed)
If Fed holds
Driven by 10-yr Treasury, not Fed Funds
If Fed hikes 25bps
Would rise further
Sensitivity: Low direct correlation — follows 10-yr Treasury
💳
Credit Card APR
~21.5% APR (average)If Fed cuts 25bps
~21.25% APR
If Fed holds
Unchanged
If Fed hikes 25bps
~21.75% APR
Sensitivity: High — directly prime rate-linked (prime + margin)
🏡
HELOC Rate
~8.75% APR (average)If Fed cuts 25bps
~8.50% APR
If Fed holds
Unchanged
If Fed hikes 25bps
~9.00% APR
Sensitivity: High — variable, prime rate-linked
The Full Rate Cycle — 2022 to Today
The Fed raised rates 525bps in 16 months (2022-2023) — the fastest hiking cycle in 40 years. The cutting cycle began in September 2024.
| Period | Action | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 2026 | Hold | 3.50-3.75% | Hold |
| January 2026 | Hold | 3.50-3.75% | Hold |
| December 2025 | Rate cut -25bps | 3.50-3.75% | -25bps |
| November 2025 | Rate cut -25bps | 3.75-4.00% | -25bps |
| September 2025 | Rate cut -25bps | 4.00-4.25% | -25bps |
| January 2025 | Hold | 4.25-4.50% | Hold |
| December 2024 | Rate cut -25bps | 4.25-4.50% | -25bps |
| November 2024 | Rate cut -25bps | 4.50-4.75% | -25bps |
| September 2024 | First cut -50bps | 4.75-5.00% | -50bps |
| July 2023 | Rate hike +25bps — peak | 5.25-5.50% | +25bps |
| February 2023 | Rate hike +25bps | 4.50-4.75% | +25bps |
| November 2022 | Rate hike +75bps | 3.75-4.00% | +75bps |
| July 2022 | Rate hike +75bps | 2.25-2.50% | +75bps |
| June 2022 | Rate hike +75bps | 1.50-1.75% | +75bps |
| May 2022 | Rate hike +50bps | 0.75-1.00% | +50bps |
| March 2022 | Hiking cycle begins | 0.25-0.50% | +25bps |
Act Before the Next Cut
Every rate cut means lower HYSA yields and lower CD rates. If you haven't locked in today's rates, now is the window.